Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai) · 10/10/2026, 09:15:50
OpenAI and Anthropic Revenue Discrepancies Trigger Market Volatility: Private Financial Transparency Emerges as Core Risk for Compute Supply Chain
Discrepancies in revenue recognition methods between OpenAI (net) and Anthropic (gross) have led to investor misjudgment of actual cash flows, causing sharp volatility in upstream suppliers like Oracle and Nvidia. While both comply with US GAAP, the billions-of-dollars gap in reported ARR highlights the signal distortion inherent in private companies without audited financials, prompting S&P to flag OpenAI as a central credit risk that threatens the broader compute infrastructure sector.
SOURCE COVERAGEFull Original Report
Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai) · 2026-10-10 01
FT: Yesterday's market fallout shows how influential OpenAI and Anthropic have become, even though both are still private companies. Oracle and Nvidia fell sharply and the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.4%.
OpenAI counts revenue net of what partners such as Microsoft keep, while Anthropic counts gross sales through cloud partners.
The higher ARR number for OpenAI ($70B.) never came from the company; investors built it by grossing up its figures to match Anthropic’s method.
Both methods are allowed under US GAAP, so the same business can report headline run rates billions of dollars apart.
As per reports, &Y is the auditor of Anthropic while Deloitte is auditing OpenAI.
Oracle is borrowing to build capacity for a 638B backlog, and S&P flags OpenAI as a central credit risk.
Microsoft, which owns about 27% of OpenAI, tied 45% of its 7.58B recapitalisation gain.
Amazon and Nvidia committed 30B to OpenAI’s March round, while AMD granted it warrants for up to 160M shares vesting as it deploys 6GW.
Much of that capital returns as chip and cloud orders, so softer OpenAI revenue will hit suppliers’ sales and stakes together.
Without audited accounts until OpenAI becomes a public company, it’s run rate is the main outside signal on whether those bills get paid.
